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Prediction for CME (2014-02-12T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-02-12T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/4825/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-02-15T12:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-02-15T12:00Z
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2014 Feb 12 2303 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Since February 11, three Earth-directed CMEs were observed. We expect CMEs to interact on their way towards the Earth.
First, full hallo CME was associated with the impulsive M1.7 flare (peaking at 03:31 UT) on February 11. The CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 04:12 UT and had projected plane of the sky speed about 300 km/s.
Second, partial halo CME was detected in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 09:24 UT on February 11 and had projected plane of the sky speed about 320 km/s. It was associated with an eruption of a filament situated to the west of the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1973). The bulk of the CME mass was directed northward of the Sun-Earth line.
Third, full halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 05:48 UT on February 12. The CME was associated with the M3.7 flare (peaking at 04:25 UT) and had the projected plane of the sky speed of about 600 km/s.
We expect that third, significantly faster CME will catch up the two slower CMEs. The arrival of the corresponding multiple ICME at the Earth is expected in the afternoon of February 15.

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Lead Time: 61.53 hour(s)
Difference: 0.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-02-12T23:03Z
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